Published: 24 August 2020 | Last updated: 16 September 2026 | Publisher: Smart Vision Optometry
At a glance
- A widely cited study projected that 49.8% of the global population could have myopia by 2050; it is a population estimate, not a certainty for each person.
- Time outdoors can help reduce the chance of childhood myopia developing, while established myopia needs clear correction, monitoring and an individual management plan.
- Myopia-control options differ in benefits, limitations and care requirements, so suitability and progress should be assessed rather than assumed.
What is myopia?
Myopia, also called short-sightedness or near-sightedness, means distant objects look blurred because light focuses in front of the retina rather than on it. It commonly develops when the eye grows too long from front to back. Glasses or contact lenses can correct the blur, while myopia management aims to reduce further progression where appropriate.
What does the 2050 forecast actually say?
A global modelling study by Holden and colleagues estimated that 49.8% of the world’s population could have myopia and 9.8% could have high myopia in 2050 if the modelled trends continue. The figures describe a population-level scenario based on available studies. They do not mean that every second individual will inevitably become short-sighted.
The public-health concern is still important. Earlier onset gives a child more years in which myopia may progress, and higher levels of myopia are associated with greater lifetime risk of several eye diseases. Regular measurement helps distinguish a stable prescription from progression that may need additional management.
Outdoor time and childhood myopia
Outdoor activity is one practical prevention measure. In a cluster-randomised trial of schoolchildren in Guangzhou, adding a 40-minute outdoor class each school day reduced three-year incident myopia from 39.5% in the control group to 30.4% in the intervention group. The authors cautioned that longer follow-up and evidence from other populations were still needed.
Outdoor time should complement, not replace, eye examinations and prescribed correction. Screen and near-work habits can be discussed as part of the child’s overall routine, without blaming one device or one behaviour as the sole cause.
What myopia management can include
An assessment can consider the child’s age, prescription history, eye health, family history, lifestyle, visual demands and ability to follow treatment instructions. Depending on the findings, options may include specialised spectacle or soft-contact-lens designs, orthokeratology, pharmaceutical options discussed by an appropriately qualified prescriber, and practical outdoor and near-work guidance.
Orthokeratology uses specially fitted rigid lenses overnight to temporarily reshape the cornea and provide clearer unaided vision during the day. In the two-year ROMIO randomised trial, children assigned to orthokeratology had slower axial elongation than controls. This does not make Ortho-K a cure or suitable for every child; lens hygiene, corneal health, fit and scheduled reviews are essential.
Read how current research evaluates myopia control, review the SVO myopia assessment and control service, or see what a childhood myopia assessment may include.
When should parents arrange an assessment?
Arrange an eye assessment if a child squints at distant signs, moves closer to screens or the classroom board, reports blurred distance vision, or has repeated prescription changes. Bring previous prescriptions and current glasses or contact lenses so the clinician can compare changes over time. You can book an appointment at SVO for an individual assessment.
Questions about myopia forecasts and treatment
Will half the world’s population definitely have myopia by 2050?
No. The often-cited 49.8% figure is a population projection based on modelled trends and available studies, not a certainty for every individual.
Can myopia be permanently cured?
Current care can correct blurred vision and, for suitable patients, reduce the rate of progression. Results vary, and management does not remove the need for ongoing eye-health and prescription reviews.
What can parents do if a child’s distance vision is changing?
Arrange a comprehensive eye assessment, keep previous prescription records, support regular outdoor activity and follow the individual correction, treatment and review plan provided by the clinician.
Myopia Prevention, Control & Management
Book Now to Take Control of Myopia
