Published: 29 October 2020 · Last updated: 16 September 2026 · Publisher: Smart Vision Optometry
At a glance
A widely cited model estimated that 49.8% of the global population could have myopia by 2050 if past trends continue. That is a forecast based on available studies—not a finding that everyone will become myopic. Family history, education, near-work patterns, time outdoors and other factors can influence risk. Myopia can be corrected, and evidence-based management may slow progression for some children, but no approach guarantees prevention or a cure.
What the 2050 estimate actually says
The often-repeated “half the world” figure comes from a 2016 systematic review and modelling study by Holden and colleagues. The researchers estimated that myopia prevalence could rise from 22.9% in 2000 to 49.8% in 2050, with high myopia increasing from 2.7% to 9.8%. The authors described implications for health-service planning and vision-loss prevention; they did not predict that every person would become myopic.
Read the original peer-reviewed study: Global Prevalence of Myopia and High Myopia and Temporal Trends from 2000 through 2050.
Forecasts depend on their data and assumptions. Prevalence varies substantially between countries, age groups and study methods. The figure is therefore useful for population planning, not for predicting one child’s future prescription.
Myopia reflects both inherited and environmental risk
Myopia usually develops when the eye grows too long for its optical power, causing distant images to focus in front of the retina. Family history is associated with risk, but myopia is not explained by a simple single-gene rule or by children merely copying their parents’ lifestyle.
The International Myopia Institute risk-factors review describes a complex picture involving genetic susceptibility and environmental exposures. It reports stronger and more consistent evidence for the association between more time outdoors and less myopia than for many other proposed factors. Intensive education and near work are also associated with risk, but screen use, artificial light or urban residence should not be presented as a single proven cause for an individual child.
Why higher myopia deserves monitoring
Glasses or contact lenses can correct blurred distance vision, but they do not remove the structural risks associated with a more elongated eye. Higher levels of myopia are associated with greater risk of retinal detachment, myopic maculopathy and some other eye conditions. Association does not mean that every person with myopia will develop sight-threatening disease.
The US National Eye Institute explains the symptoms, risk factors and correction of myopia and notes the additional eye-health risks associated with severe myopia. Regular eye-health review should be matched to the person’s age, prescription, symptoms and clinical findings.
What families can do now
Encouraging children to spend more time outdoors is a practical, low-risk strategy associated with a lower chance of developing myopia. It does not replace eye examinations and should not be described as reversing established myopia. Breaks from sustained close work can also support general comfort and healthy routines.
If a child is already myopic or their prescription is changing, an optometrist can measure vision, refraction and eye health, review progression and discuss suitable options. Depending on age, findings and availability, evidence-based management may include specially designed spectacles or contact lenses, orthokeratology or prescribed low-dose atropine. Each option has benefits, limitations, costs and monitoring requirements; individual responses vary.
Myopia information and assessment
Our related article, Myopia research and the 2050 global projection, explains why population forecasts and individual treatment expectations must be kept separate.
Smart Vision Optometry’s myopia prevention and management service outlines the assessment process and available approaches. For further parent-focused information, visit Myopia Prevention Australia.
Book an assessment at Bondi or Mosman, or call Bondi on (02) 9365 5047 or Mosman on (02) 9969 1600.
Frequently asked questions
Will everyone be myopic after 2050?
No. A modelling study estimated that about half of the global population could have myopia by 2050 if past trends continue. It is a population forecast with uncertainty, not a prediction that every person will become myopic.
Is myopia inherited?
Family history is associated with a higher risk, but myopia reflects a complex interaction of inherited susceptibility and environmental factors. A parent’s prescription alone cannot determine whether or how quickly a child will become myopic.
Can childhood myopia be prevented or cured?
More outdoor time is associated with a lower risk of myopia onset. For a child who is already myopic, suitable management may slow progression, but outcomes vary and no option guarantees prevention, reversal or a cure.
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